The following article is by our favorite guest columnist, Andy Pico. It was first published in the Colorado Springs Gazette on Monday, 09 Mar.
As always, comments and discussion are welcome.
Costs Demand Debate on Climate
ANDRES PICO, GUEST COLUMNIST
March 6, 2009 – 8:48PM
In previous columns I have made the point that climate changes predicted by the Global Warming Hysterics have failed to occur. Some have pointed out that the current cooling trend is not long enough to reflect a trend. I agree and actually made the same point in an earlier letter. But in so doing I have pointed out that long-term trends clearly show cyclical climate fluctuations.
The current warming trend is merely part of that cycle. The current warming trend started before the start of the industrial revolution and any discussion of long-term climate trends have to go much further back.
The ice core data going back hundreds of thousands of years shows a very clear climate change history which is not in debate. That history shows cyclical climate changes.
Although obvious, there are those who claim there are no cycles in climate because if there are, then it is clear there are natural forces that drive climate change which is a threat to the political fraud being pushed.
The climate history shows within the Holocene period of the past 14,000 years there has been tremendous climate variability for the entire period. After the Younger Dryas event, the climate was relatively stable at a much warmer level than present for over 5,000 years. Within that period and since there is a measured climate cycle of about 1,500 years that goes from warm to cool to warm and so on.
The Medieval Warm Period was followed by the Little Ice Age followed by the current Modern Warming. This cycle is regular and extraordinarily well documented in an overwhelming amount of scientific literature. The temperatures are reconstructed from a wide variety of proxies and it has been determined that the average temperatures of the Holocene have been at least 3-4 degrees warmer than today with the average for the last 5,000 years at least 2-3 degrees warmer than today. Direct gas measurements of atmospheric CO2 taken during the later part of the Medieval Warm Period were measured in the range of 430 ppm (Beck) which, despite Al Gore’s and James Hansen’s hysterical predictions of catastrophe with the end of civilization and the boiling away of the oceans if we go over 400 ppm, was followed by the Little Ice Age.
The current warming started at the end of the Little Ice Age in about 1850. Those who show graphs of warming very conveniently chop off the earlier part of the warming trend to artificially manufacture a trend correlated with CO2. They suppress the actual linkage where warming temperatures cause the rise in CO2 as the oceans “breathe out” in a warming trend and “breathe in” during a cooling trend.
What does correlate with the start of the Modern Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period is solar activity, amplified by oceanic and atmospheric circulation cycles specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation multi-decadal shifts. The solar correlation is extraordinarily strong when temperature trends and solar cycle lengths are smoothed to match the 22-year solar cycle.
All of this information is available in a vast quantity of scientific journals, textbooks, papers, studies, etc., all written by legions of scientists with solid scientific credentials and working with “carbon-free funding” despite propaganda to the contrary.
The Modern Warming has trended up for 150 years with periods of cooling. We are now at the start of a multi-decadal cooling period which began in 1998. The cooling is pretty clear on the monthly data from every reporting agency. If El Niño peaks and La Niña dips are smoothed, then 1998 is very clearly and undeniably the peak of the warming in the shorter term. The decade since is a gradual decline until 2007 at which point a sharp decline started. This was predicted by those paying attention to solar and oceanic cycles.
The climate models and the Global Warming Hysterics all predicted catastrophic warming and temperatures a full two degrees warmer than now.
The economic and governmental impacts of the measures being proposed to “fight global warming” are already having disastrous effects across the world, particularly on the poor and disadvantaged. The effects of the measures being proposed will be economically devastating across the entire country. Did you like paying $4 per gallon for gas? Stand by for $10 (Salazar). Do you like your current utility bill? Stand by to quadruple that bill (Obama). These are the policies they intend to mandate in a regime of central economic planning dictated by the government in a suppression of a free market.
These issues deserve an open, independent and honest scientific, economic and political debate.
Pico, of Colorado Springs, is a retired navy commander, naval flight officer and economist. He is a signatory of the Manhattan Declaration.